As world energy markets transform at an unprecedented rate,
India is at the forefront of the shift towards profitable renewables given that
the country's solar belt has the potential of 749 GW for power generation. As
shown by a new IEEFA (Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis)
analysis, accelerating this trend will allow India avoid the costly mistakes
made by slow-moving, late-learning European utilities, which have wasted
billions on stranded coal and other thermal power assets.
In Europe, the rise of cheap renewable energy has pulled
down wholesale electricity prices, causing financial pain for utilities that
have delayed their transition from fossil fuels to renewables. Over the
2010-2016 period, European utilities have made $150 billion in asset
write-downs. Investors from Goldman Sachs and UBS have been warning for years
that coal has reached retirement age and that solar will become the
"default technology of the future".
Similar trends have been apparent now for some time in China
and India, where drives to install both thermal and renewable capacity
concurrently have seen coal-fired power station utilisation rates drop to
record lows of 47 per cent and 57 per cent respectively in 2016. This is
despite electricity demand growing in these countries.
To illustrate further, the giant, 63 percent state-owned
power company, NTPC, provides 25 per cent of India's electricity supply and as
such plays a critical role in the country's economic activity. Historically
dependent on coal-fired electricity generation, India's power sector is moving
in a starkly new direction. The Indian energy ministry is driving this trend,
pushing the nation toward energy efficiency and renewable energy targets that
are highly ambitious but in IEEFA's view, entirely achievable.
The government has set a target of 175 GW of renewable
energy by 2022, including 100 GW of solar and 60 GW of wind. India's draft
Third National Electricity Plan (NEP3) for the next two five-year periods, to
2027, unambiguously concludes that beyond the half-built plants already under
construction, India does not require any new coal-fired power stations. The 50
GW of coal power currently under construction nationally will operate at just
50-55 per cent capacity. Where these proposed new plants don't replace old
coal, they will essentially become stranded assets operating largely as reserve
capacity. NTPC has 15 GW of coal-fired capacity in development but plans to
retire 11 GW of older capacity.
Despite its history as a fundamentally coal-based power
generation utility, NTPC is now rapidly rolling out in-house, utility-scale
solar projects and it is signing power purchase agreements for solar power from
private solar operators at record low, deflationary electricity tariffs absent
subsidies. It is even beginning an entry into the electric vehicle sector by
setting up charging stations. NTPC has committed to contributing 10 GW of solar
capacity to the overall 100 GW government national target, making the company a
cornerstone facilitator of India's national electricity transformation.
Loss-making European utilities are now looking to India for
new, safe investment opportunities given the impressive renewable energy drive.
One of the biggest European power companies, the French utility Engie, which
lost a total of some $40 billion during 2010-2016 on fossil fuels and nuclear
holdings, intends to invest $1 billion in Indian solar over the next five years
whilst also considering wind power. Engie is also reported to be one of the
parties interested in the purchase of Singapore-based Equis Energy's Indian
renewable energy portfolio.
Engie investors, like Indian officials, see that the
transition from polluting to low carbon technology is where smart money is
heading. Thus, Engie is undergoing a transformation plan, which includes a
target that low carbon activities aiming to represent more than 90 per cent of
earnings by 2018.
Engie and Italian utility ENEL are also amongst the
international investors heading into South African renewables. The country has
been running a renewable energy procurement programme that is internationally
regarded as well-designed and successful. So far 2.2 GW of renewable capacity
has been completed, attracting over $14 billion of investment.
But South African utility Eskom continues to fail to
appreciate the future role of renewable energy as it continues with expensive
giant new coal plants, Medupi and Kusile, even though electricity demand is
falling. Eskom now has more than 5 GW of excess coal capacity even before most
units of its new plants are operational.
South Africa, like India, is in transition. A key difference
between the two nations is that electricity demand growth has stalled in South
Africa which means any renewables growth immediately eats away at coal's
generation profile as in Europe. In India, continued demand growth can help
NTPC avoid the huge losses in its existing coal fleet if that demand growth is
increasingly supplied by renewables going forward. If you look at the evidence,
there is only one safe bet to make billions and avoid European-style losses.
(Tim Buckley, Director
of Energy Finance Studies at IEEFA, has 25 years of financial markets'
experience, having spent the majority of this time as a top-rated equities
research analyst in Australia, and he has covered global and Asian equity
markets. The views expressed are personal. He can be contacted at
tbuckley@ieefa.org)
Source: IANS
Source: IANS
Comments
Post a Comment