China, blighted by pollution and long known for churning out cheap manufactured goods, is looking to dominate the high-end of a major growth market: solar power.
Under a new program, China is pushing the industry to mass
market high-performance solar cells so far used mainly in high-tech products
like satellites.
Making these cells more affordable will likely further boost
a sector that has already disrupted global electricity generation.
It will also put pressure on international solar cell makers
such as Canadian Solar, REC Solar, Sharp and Sunpower which compete with
Chinese leaders including LONGi Green Energy Technology, Trina Solar and JA
Solar Holdings.
Under its 2017 "Top Runner Program", China's
National Energy Administration (NEA) plans to add 8-10 gigawatt (GW) of solar
capacity to its existing 80 GW.
"This shift ... could have far-reaching implications
for the global solar industry, especially vaulting China into the top ranks of
countries pursuing solar R&D," Stanford University said in its 2017
report on the solar industry.
MULTI OUT, MONO IN
World solar power generation capacity has ballooned to
around 300 GW from just 1 GW in 2000, according to International Renewable
Energy Agency (Irena) data - and is set to double again by 2020.
That growth has largely relied on multi-crystalline silicon
photovoltaic (PV) cells - sometimes called polycrystalline - in which solar
units consist of multiple silicon crystallines.
These have been cheaper to produce than the more efficient
mono-crystalline cells, which are made from single crystalline units.
The price of multi-crystalline cells has dropped to well
below 50 cents per watt from $80 in 1980.
But prices are now converging as China scales up production
of mono-crystalline cells.
Energy Trend, a consultancy, says the average price of a
Chinese high-efficiency, multi-crystalline cell is now $0.225 per watt,
compared to just $0.319 for high-efficiency, mono-crystalline cells.
"With poly-silicon products, we have seen the
(development) ceiling. Now, we are ramping up investment of mono-solar,"
said Xie Tian, director of quality management at LONGi Green Energy Technology.
"Mono-crystalline can take more than 50 percent of the market," he
said, up from around a fifth today.
Analysts say demand for mono-crystalline panels is already
strong.
"Many panel makers... can't meet orders. Their bookings
are full until next year," said Jason Tsai of Energy Trend.
NOT NEW, BUT BETTER
Mono-crystalline technology is not new, but because of its
cost, has mainly been used in high-tech space products.
But its use is likely to increase as the cost differential
narrows, meaning a higher efficiency can be had at a similar price.
Under the "Top Runner" program, pay-outs known as
Feed-in-Tariffs will favour high-efficiency projects.
"It's much easier to meet the requirements on mono,
therefore it (the program) is accelerating investment in mono," said Steve
O'Neil, CEO of REC Solar, a Singapore-based panel maker owned by Chinese
state-owned ChemChina.
Germany's Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy, a leader in
solar development, said in July the record laboratory efficiency for
mono-crystalline was 26.7 percent per cell, versus 21.9 percent for
multi-crystalline.
While China is driving the shift into mono-crystalline,
producers globally are adapting.
REC, for example, says it is starting to move into
mono-crystallines after focusing largely on multi-crystalline cells.
"We've been looking into mono to further improve power
output. In early July, we started production of a... mono solar panel
specifically designed for Japan's residential market," O'Neil said.
Solar cell development doesn't end with mono-crystalline
cells, and China's competitors aren't sitting idle.
Fraunhofer has developed so-called multi-junction cells with
an efficiency of 46 percent, and U.S. aerospace giant Boeing's Spectrolab is
developing cells with similar efficiency.
Source: Reuters
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